Synoposis
This article questions the traditional way of assessing trade with sanctioned nations based on overall import volumes. By examining Russia and Iran’s exports to countries such as India, the EU, and the U.S., it becomes evident that per capita import metrics provide a fairer and more precise perspective. The findings encourage policymakers to embrace population-adjusted trade analysis to prevent misleading narratives and support fair, data-driven diplomacy.
In an increasingly interconnected global economy, economic sanctions have become a primary tool of international diplomacy. However, the efficacy and fairness of these measures often come under scrutiny, particularly when the metrics used to assess compliance or impacts are flawed. A critical re-evaluation is needed, especially concerning the common practice of judging a nation’s trade relations with sanctioned entities based solely on gross import volumes. As recent data suggests, this approach paints an incomplete and potentially biased picture. The true measure of a nation’s economic engagement, and thus its adherence to sanction regimes, should fundamentally shift to per capita import figures.
This article analyzes recent export data from Russia and Iran to India, the European Union (EU), non-EU western nations, and the United States, adjusting all figures per capita for the full fiscal year 2024–2025 (both Russia and Iran). Also analyzed data for the first half of 2025 for the exports from Russia to the EU, the US, and India.
The Flaw in Total Trade Volume
The prevailing narrative often focuses on the sheer volume of trade between a country and a sanctioned nation. For instance, when discussing imports from Russia in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, headlines frequently highlight the total dollar value of goods flowing into nations like India. While these figures are numerically correct, they fundamentally misunderstand the purpose of trade: goods and services are ultimately consumed by people, not by landmasses or political entities. A country with a massive population will naturally have a higher aggregate demand for goods, leading to larger total import figures, even if individual consumption levels are modest.
To illustrate, consider two hypothetical countries: Country A with 10 million people and Country B with 1 billion people. If both import $100 million worth of goods from a sanctioned nation, Country A’s per capita import would be $10, while Country B’s would be a mere $0.10. Judging Country B more harshly than Country A based on total imports would be illogical and unjust, as Country A’s citizens are consuming 100 times more of sanctioned goods per person.
The Numbers Tell a Different Story: India’s Case
The most recent data concerning Russia’s exports by destination for the first half of 2025 starkly highlights this disparity:
| Destination | Total Exports (6 months) | Population (2025 est.) | Per Capita Imports from Russia |
| India | $25-26 billion | 1.46 billion | $17.1 |
| EU | $6.5-7.7 billion | 450 million | $14.7-17.1 |
| U.S. | $1.5 billion | 347 million | $4.3 |
As the table clearly shows, India’s per capita import from Russia ($17.1) is roughly on par with, or even slightly lower than, that of the European Union ($14.7-$17.1). Despite India’s total trade figure with Russia being significantly higher, this is directly attributable to its much larger population (1.46 billion compared to the EU’s 450 million). The United States, with a population of 347 million, imported far less both in total and per capita.
Data from the previous fiscal year also show that India’s per capita import from Russia is far less than EU, Serbia, and Turkey.
Russia’s Exports to Key Destinations – Full Year 2024
| Destination | Exports from Russia (2024) | Population (2025 est.) | Per Capita Import |
| India | $66.1 billion | 1.46 billion | $45.2 |
| EU (aggregate) | $43.8 billion | 450 million | $97.3 |
| United States | $3.0 billion | 347 million | $8.6 |
| Turkey | ~$35.5 billion | 86 million | $412.8 |
| United Kingdom | $0.712 billion | 68 million | $10.5 |
| Switzerland | ~$0.020 billion | 9 million | $2.2 |
| Norway | $0.068 billion | 5.5 million | $12.4 |
| Serbia (non-EU) | $1.7 billion (2023) | 7 million | $242.9 |
Why Per Capita Analysis Reveals True Trade Exposure
- Countries like Turkey and Serbia prove how smaller populations can result in very high per capita exposure, even if total trade values seem smaller than India or the EU.
- India’s per capita imports from Russia (~$45) remain moderate compared to Turkey ($413) and Serbia ($243).
- The European average (~$97 per person) is heavily influenced by a few high-trade nations; smaller EU members may import very little.
- U.S. shows minimal per-person trade (~$8.6), reflecting strong sanctions and limited economic ties.
Per Capita Imports from Russia (2024): [Shows dramatically higher per-person imports in Turkey and Serbia compared to India, EU, or the U.S.]
This data directly refutes the notion that India is disproportionately “funding” Russia’s war economy. Accusations that ignore this crucial demographic context are not only statistically misleading but also morally unfair, painting an incomplete and potentially biased picture of a nation’s economic conduct.
A similar pattern emerges when examining Iran’s export data.
Iran Exports by Destination – FY 2024–2025
| Destination / Region | Exports (USD) | Population (est. 2024) | Exports per Capita (USD) |
| European Union (27 countries) | 899.6 M | 450 M | $2.00 |
| Turkey | 2.45 B | 84.1 M | $29.16 |
| United Kingdom | 65 M | 68.5 M | $0.95 |
| Switzerland | 100 M | 8.96 M | $11.17 |
| Norway | 6.14 M | 5.51 M | $1.11 |
| Serbia | 10–20 M | 6.57 M | $1.52–$3.05 |
| United States | 6.3 M | 335 M | $0.019 |
| India | 1.97 B | 1,438 M | $1.37 |
Interpreting the Numbers
At first glance, Iran appears to export more to India than to the European Union or the United States. But this perception shifts when we consider population-adjusted imports:
- The EU, despite its reduced economic ties with Iran, still imported around $2 per person.
- India, with over 1.4 billion people, imported only about $1.37 worth of goods per capita from Iran.
- Turkey stands out as Iran’s largest non-EU European partner, with imports exceeding $29 per person.
- The United States, though often vocal in its opposition to Iran’s economic influence, imported a negligible $0.02 per person, making Iran effectively irrelevant in U.S. trade volumes.
Per Capita Imports from Iran (FY 2024–25): Highlights Turkey’s disproportionately high per capita imports, with India and the U.S. at the lower end.
When evaluated on a per capita basis, India’s trade volumes fall well within global norms and are, in fact, lower than those of the EU and far below Turkey’s.
Policy Implications
Blaming countries like India for maintaining trade relations with Iran and Russia often ignores context and scale. Goods and services are imported for people, and thus, comparing gross national trade volumes without accounting for population size can distort reality. Policymakers and commentators must consider per capita metrics before casting judgment on global partnerships.
This applies equally to Iran–Russia–India trade dynamics, and even more so to emerging powers in the Global South, where large populations often skew total numbers upward while individuals receive proportionally little benefit.
Implications for Economic Diplomacy and Consistency
Adopting a per-capita metric for assessing sanctions compliance would bring much-needed consistency and credibility to international economic diplomacy. It would shift the focus from raw, often sensationalized, total trade figures to a more nuanced understanding of actual consumption and economic impact per individual.
- Fairness and Equity: It ensures that nations with large populations are not unfairly penalized for their aggregate demand, aligning the assessment with the reality of individual consumption.
- Accuracy of Impact: It provides a more precise measure of how much a sanctioned economy is benefiting on a per-person basis from trade with a given country.
- Reduced Misinformation: It helps combat misleading narratives that can strain international relations and undermine collaborative efforts.
- Informed Policy Making: Policymakers can make more informed decisions about the effectiveness of sanctions and target areas where actual per-capita consumption of sanctioned goods is high.
Conclusion
The time has come to reframe the global conversation around economic sanctions. Goods are imported to serve the needs of individuals—not square kilometers, political blocs, or headline-driven metrics. If the world seeks consistency and credibility in its economic diplomacy, then per capita import comparisons must take center stage. This approach offers a fairer, more accurate reflection of a nation’s economic behavior, particularly for populous countries whose aggregate trade figures often mask modest individual consumption.
Moving forward, any evaluation of a nation’s trade with sanctioned entities should prioritize this metric to ensure balance, transparency, and a stronger foundation for global policy. The question is no longer whether the data exists—but whether the international community will continue judging global trade through the lens of blind aggregates, or choose fairness rooted in economic truth.
References
Russia
- Trading Economics, “Russia Exports by Country – India,” https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports/india.
- United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects 2024: India, https://population.un.org/wpp/.
- Russia’s Pivot to Asia, Russia’s Foreign Trade: 2024 Changes and 2025 Trends, https://russiaspivottoasia.com/russias-foreign‑trade-2024-changes-and-2025-trends.
- Eurostat, “Population on 1 January by Age and Sex,” European Commission, 2025. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics.
- U.S. Census Bureau, “U.S. Goods Imports from Russia in 2024,” USTR/Census, https://ustr.gov/.
- U.S. Census Bureau, “U.S. Population Clock,” 2025. https://www.census.gov/popclock/.
- TASS / Turkish Statistical Institute, “Turkey’s imports from Russia reach $35.5 bln in 2024,” Nov. 2024. https://tass.com/economy/1879083.
- UN population estimate for Turkey, 2025.
- Trading Economics, “United Kingdom Exports to Russia – 2024,” https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports/russia.
- UK population estimate, 2025.
- Wikipedia: “Russia–Switzerland relations” (trade volume ~₣ underscores commodity trading), https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Switzerland_relations.
- Swiss population estimate, 2025.
- Trading Economics, “Norway Exports to Russia – 2024,” https://tradingeconomics.com/norway/exports/russia.
- Norway population estimate, 2025.
- Wikipedia: “Russia–Serbia relations,” Russian exports ~ $1.7 billion in 2023. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Serbia_relations.
- Serbia population estimate, 2025.
Iran
- “Iran Exports to India was US$1.89 Billion during 2022.” TradingEconomics.com, https://tradingeconomics.com/iran/exports/india.
- “European Union, Trade with Iran – Key Figures.” European Commission – Directorate General Trade, May 8, 2025. https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/isdb_results/factsheets/country/details_iran_en.pdf.
- “European Union Imports from Iran was US$899.61 Million during 2024.” TradingEconomics.com. https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/imports/iran.
- “2025: U.S. Trade in Goods with Iran.” U.S. Census Bureau, https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5070.html.
- “Iran Total Exports to USA recorded 0.485 million in Oct 2024.” CEIC Data, https://www.ceicdata.com.
- World Bank. “Population Data, 2024.” data.worldbank.org
- Trading Economics. “European Union Imports from Iran.” TradingEconomics.com. 2025. https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/imports/iran
- Trading Economics. “Turkey Imports from Iran.” TradingEconomics.com. 2025. https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/imports/iran
- Trading Economics. “United States Imports from Iran.” TradingEconomics.com. 2025. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports/iran
- WTO Trade Profiles. “Iran.” Trade and Tariff Database (TTD). 2025. https://ttd.wto.org/en/profiles/iran
- DIIHK (German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce). “EU–Iran Trade Data.” diihk.com. 2025.
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