By Fatima Baloch and Umesh Agarwal
The Baloch are an ancient ethnic group who live on both sides of the borders under Pakistani and Iranian control, as well as in parts of southern Afghanistan where they are relatively well established. Historically, Balochistan was divided primarily due to British colonial interests in the late nineteenth century. This division created buffer zones between the British Indian Empire, Persia (Iran), and Afghanistan through the “Goldsmid Line” (1871–1896).When British India was partitioned in 1947, the Khanate of Kalat (Eastern Balochistan) declared its independence on August 12, 1947. However, Pakistan annexed Balochistan on March 27, 1948. Since then, the Baloch nation has continued its struggle for independence and national identity.
Early resistance movements were largely led by tribal elders, nawabs, sardars, and members of royal families. Due to the tribal structure of Baloch society, the Baloch people were unable to launch a unified and effective national resistance during that period. Instead, resistance emerged intermittently and on a localized basis. These traditional leadership structures proved insufficiently revolutionary and ultimately failed to achieve independence. Over time, however, Baloch students emerged as the driving force behind a more organized and ideologically grounded movement.
The Baloch nationalist struggle—initiated by the Baloch Students Organization (BSO), the ideological precursor to the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), and other pro-independence groups—shares certain structural similarities with the Afghan Taliban movement. However, the Baloch struggle predates the Taliban by decades. The principal distinction lies in ideology: the Taliban are rooted in religious doctrine with nationalist elements, whereas the Baloch movement is secular, democratic, and purely nationalist. Despite these differences, both movements frame their struggle as a fight for sovereignty and dignity.
Before the Taliban’s emergence in 1996, Afghanistan had already endured decades of instability marked by coups, foreign interventions, and internal conflict. Power frequently shifted between warlords and externally backed regimes, resulting in widespread destruction, political chaos, and suffering for the population. Afghanistan never experienced a sustained democratic, nationalist, or secular political order under monarchy, communism, or externally imposed systems.
In 1973, King Zahir Shah was overthrown in a coup led by his cousin and former prime minister, Mohammad Daoud Khan. Although Daoud pursued modernization, his policies strained relations with regional powers, particularly the Soviet Union. He was killed during the 1978 Saur Revolution led by the communist People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA). Nur Muhammad Taraki assumed power on April 30, 1978, but internal party conflicts soon escalated. Taraki was later overthrown and assassinated by Hafizullah Amin on September 14, 1979. Amin himself was killed on December 27, 1979. This period was marked by violent purges, political instability, and the absence of constitutional governance.
In December 1979, the Soviet Union intervened militarily in Afghanistan and installed Babrak Karmal as president, triggering a devastating proxy war. The United States, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and other allies supported Mujahideen factions ranging from tribal warlords to Islamist fighters and international jihadists, including Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. Pakistan, acting as a frontline ally of the West, received substantial financial and military assistance while spearheading the proxy campaign against the Soviet-backed Afghan government.
The war devastated Afghanistan, displaced millions, and produced a generation of refugees, many of whom were raised in religious madrassas. These institutions later became breeding grounds for extremism. Following the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, President Najibullah’s government collapsed in 1992. Fragmented and foreign-sponsored Mujahideen factions turned on one another, plunging the country into a brutal civil war. Kabul was reduced to ruins, thousands were killed, and famine spread.The civil war demonstrated that the sacrifices of the Pakistan-, Saudi-, and U.S.-backed Mujahideen—largely tribal chiefs and warlord factions—failed to bring stability. In many ways, the conflict served broader strategic interests rather than the Afghan people. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, supported by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), emerged as a powerful yet divisive figure. Amid the chaos, Pakistan introduced a new proxy force—the Afghan Taliban—in 1994, eventually sidelining Hekmatyar.
Composed largely of madrassa-educated youth, the Taliban captured Kabul in 1996 and established a theocratic regime aligned with Pakistan and hostile to India. After the September 11 attacks, however, the United States and NATO launched a military campaign to dismantle Al-Qaeda and remove the Taliban from power. Pakistan shifted its allegiance and joined the U.S.-led coalition in exchange for financial and military assistance.
Although the Taliban regime collapsed and a democratic government under Hamid Karzai was installed, the Taliban regrouped and waged a prolonged insurgency. The 2020 Doha Agreement paved the way for the U.S. withdrawal, and on August 15, 2021, the Taliban returned to power—this time projecting a more nationalist posture and greater independence from Pakistan.Afghanistan, despite decades of monarchy, communism, socialism, and externally imposed democracies, has not experienced lasting peace for more than forty-five years. Yet, unlike previous regimes, the Taliban-led government has brought relative stability to large parts of the country. Many Afghans perceive its governance model as aligned with cultural and religious values. The Taliban have sought to curb corruption, restore law and order, and reassert national sovereignty, gaining legitimacy and support particularly in rural areas. The movement now presents itself as more nationalist in character and has distanced itself from Pakistan due to Islamabad’s past cooperation with Western powers. It has also engaged diplomatically with India and several Arab states.
Balochistan has similarly faced foreign exploitation and internal betrayal. Its tribal structure has long been manipulated by Pakistan and Iran, with some tribal leaders acting as proxies. On March 27, 1948, several Baloch chiefs supported Balochistan’s annexation into Pakistan. Since then, many tribal elites have benefited from military patronage while suppressing popular aspirations.
Founded on November 26, 1967, in Karachi, the Baloch Students Organization initially focused on student rights and the promotion of the Balochi language and culture, both marginalized by Pakistani and Iranian authorities. Baloch languages remain excluded from formal education, and cultural heritage continues to be neglected. Over time, the BSO evolved into a political force challenging both occupation and feudal dominance, laying the groundwork for armed resistance groups such as the BLA and BLF.
Today, thousands of educated and secular Baloch youth have joined these movements, opposing both military occupation and complicit tribal elites. Unlike the Taliban—who have historically excluded women—the Baloch movement has witnessed active female participation, particularly within the elite Majeed Brigade. Leadership in Pakistan-occupied Balochistan and among Baloch diaspora communities has maintained relations with successive Afghan governments, including the current Taliban administration. Notably, some nationalist figures within the Taliban leadership are reported to maintain cordial relations with Baloch freedom fighters.
The Baloch also form an integral part of Afghanistan’s ethnic mosaic. Nimroz, a Baloch-majority province, remained relatively peaceful during the Soviet invasion, the civil war, and the U.S./NATO occupation. Afghan Baloch leaders consistently negotiated with influential commanders such as Ismail Khan in Herat to prevent internal conflict. These efforts helped avert wider instability during the U.S. withdrawal in August 2021. Today, Afghan Baloch reportedly hold positions within the Taliban’s political and military structures, with some expressing sympathy for Baloch nationalist aspirations.
The leadership of the Baloch movement has gradually transitioned from traditional figures such as Nawab Khair Bakhsh Marri and Nawab Akbar Bugti to a new generation of grassroots leaders. Their stated objective remains the establishment of a sovereign and democratic Balochistan. The movement has become increasingly organized, developing technical units, an intelligence wing known as ZIRAB, drone capabilities, and specialized units such as the Majeed Brigade. Public support continues to grow amid allegations of state repression and systemic injustice.
Several international analysts suggest that Pakistan’s military—backed by China and Turkey—faces increasing difficulty in suppressing the Baloch insurgency. Pakistan’s tensions with Afghanistan, its internal conflict with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the BLA, Chinese involvement through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and disputes over Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) have further complicated the regional security environment.
Conclusion
For any powerful military force, occupying a neighboring territory may be relatively easy; however, sustaining a prolonged occupation is costly and difficult. An occupying power must continuously confront resistance movements, face the risk of prolonged guerrilla warfare, and operate in an environment where the local population remains hostile and culturally distant.
Pakistan annexed Balochistan on March 27, 1948, and has maintained long-term control over the region while extensively exploiting its natural resources—including gas, oil, minerals, coastal access, and key economic centers. The economic benefits of this exploitation have largely accrued to the central state, while the social, political, and human costs have been borne by the people of Balochistan.
Historically, the financial and security burden of occupation remained manageable for the central government because it was offset by the extraction of Balochistan’s own resources. In modern guerrilla conflicts, however, resistance movements often attempt to increase the cost of occupation for the occupying power.
This strategy involves targeting military infrastructure, state-controlled airports, industrial facilities, and revenue-generating projects associated with federal authority. When the occupying state begins to experience the full political, economic, and security costs of occupation, it may eventually be compelled to withdraw. Under such circumstances, Balochistan could gain the opportunity to achieve independence.
The evolving Afghanistan–Pakistan tensions, the rise of the TTP, and the resilience of the Baloch movement highlight Pakistan’s growing internal and external challenges. A destabilized Pakistan dominated by extremist forces could threaten the broader stability of South Asia and pose risks to regional security.
Conversely, an independent and secular Balochistan could emerge as a stabilizing regional partner. In the context of China’s strategic presence through CPEC—particularly in areas linked to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and the Shaksgam Valley—regional powers must carefully consider the long-term implications for sovereignty and security.
As demonstrated in 1971, regional geopolitics can shift dramatically under complex circumstances. A Pakistan increasingly dominated by extremism could further destabilize South Asia, whereas a stable and secular Balochistan might contribute to a new regional balance. Strategic foresight and careful engagement with emerging political realities will play a critical role in shaping the future stability of the region.
About the Author
Fatima Baloch is a senior geopolitical and regional expert who writes extensively on Afghanistan, Balochistan, and India, with a focus on strategic dynamics and regional security.
Umesh Agarwal is a geopolitical expert with a wide range of experience in India–Pakistan conflicts, international relations, and regional conflicts, and is a senior columnist associated with the digital news platform IndiaChronicle.
