By Fatima Baloch and Umesh Agarwal
Pakistan first positioned itself publicly as a mediator in the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran around March 22–23, 2026, following a call between Army Chief Asim Munir and U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday, March 22. However, any regional expert or geopolitical analyst understands that a credible war mediator must be more powerful than the warring parties, ensuring a reliable guarantee that hostilities will not resume after a ceasefire and that all issues are resolved through negotiations for lasting peace. All warring parties must respect the mediator and recognize some degree of deterrence. In a conflict such as the U.S.–Israel alignment against Iran, where several Arab nations—including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait—are adversely affected, major powers such as Russia, India, and China are better positioned to serve as effective mediators to prevent further aggression and secure durable peace.
Economically constrained countries like Pakistan lack the capacity to act as credible mediators in conflicts involving major powers. Pakistan appears to be attempting to gain regional relevance amid the current war, potentially expecting post-war economic and military assistance from the involved parties and middle powers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait. This approach reflects an effort to position itself as a broker while potentially benefiting from a devastating conflict in which thousands of civilians are being killed, infrastructure is being destroyed across the region, and the global economy is under pressure. Such enhanced relevance may also be leveraged by Pakistan in its strategic posture toward India, Afghanistan, and the Baloch region.
Pakistan is currently grappling with a serious internal security crisis, including violent insurgencies by groups such as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and separatist organizations like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, respectively. Amid these challenges, Pakistan has conducted cross-border military actions into Afghanistan on multiple occasions, raising concerns regarding sovereignty and regional stability, and resulting in civilian and infrastructure losses.
Pakistan’s key military objective appears to be pressuring the Afghan Taliban-led government to act against groups ideologically aligned with its adversaries, such as the TTP and BLA. However, if the Afghan Taliban were to take action against the TTP—whose members previously fought alongside them against the United States and NATO—it could trigger internal dissent and public backlash within Afghanistan. Such developments may create instability, potentially leading to internal conflict similar to the early 1990s, and could reshape the current leadership structure. Several countries, including China, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, have expressed concern over rising regional tensions, which carries implications for Pakistan’s strategic position.
To conceal its internal struggles and divert attention from setbacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, and Afghanistan, Pakistan is attempting to regain regional relevance and strengthen strategic alliances. It appears to be positioning itself as a ceasefire and peace broker in the current U.S.– and Israel-linked tensions with Iran. Pakistan likely calculates that if regime change occurs in Iran, it may gain a strategic ally to counterbalance secular and moderate Baloch nationalist movements seeking independence. Conversely, the theocratic Islamic Republic of Iran is likely aware of Pakistan’s alignment with U.S. and Israeli interests.
Globally, Pakistan has frequently been associated with involvement in proxy conflicts and support for non-state actors as part of its strategic approach. From 2018 to October 2022, it was placed on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list due to “strategic deficiencies” in its anti-money laundering (AML) and countering the financing of terrorism (CFT) frameworks. Historically, in contexts such as Bangladesh, Balochistan, and Afghanistan, Pakistan has faced serious allegations of human rights violations that have drawn international criticism. Given this record, it is questionable to consider Pakistan a key mediator in the current war.
Meanwhile, India’s foreign policy in recent years appears to have lost some of its traditional influence in the region, while Pakistan seems actively engaged in enhancing its strategic relevance, particularly in the Middle East and broader global affairs. India and Iran maintain a complex relationship marked by cooperation in trade, energy, and connectivity. Despite the ongoing war, Iran continues to facilitate the passage of oil and LNG tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, while India maintains strong relations with Arab nations where thousands of Indian engineers, doctors, and industrial workers are employed, as well as with the United States.
Unfortunately, India appears to underestimate the value of its historically strong and balanced relations with countries such as Iran, which has supported India on several key issues. Recent policy shifts—especially closer alignment with Israel—have raised concerns among observers regarding broader implications for regional diplomacy. Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi visited Israel on February 25–26, 2026, stating that “India stands with Israel,” signaling implicit support for Israeli actions against Muslim populations and Iran, which could undermine India’s traditional role as a neutral actor in the region. This suggests that India’s strategic policy-making may lack sufficiently broad and visionary guidance.
Conclusion:
India has long been recognized for promoting peace, dialogue, and ceasefire efforts, earning the reputation of a “Vishwaguru.” This perception appears to be diminishing in the current global context, reflecting a misalignment in India’s foreign policy approach. India must understand that to play a credible role as a mediator in the ongoing conflict, it needs to act decisively. India should coordinate with China, Russia, and France to invite and host the U.S., Israel, Iran, and Arab nations in New Delhi for ceasefire and peace talks aimed at achieving enduring stability.
Indian strategists must recognize that Pakistan Army could collapse under pressure from the TTP and BLA, much like the former Afghan National Army did before the Taliban’s capture of Kabul on August 15, 2021. In such a scenario, PoK could fall under TTP influence. Reports suggest the TTP already maintains a strong presence there, having declared Kashmir a new “Vilayat,” dividing Gilgit into Vilayat Diamer and Vilayat Darel, where the Pakistan Army faces frequent attacks and ambushes. The presence of extremist groups in PoK—a region with a significant Shia and moderate Muslim population, legally regarded by India as part of its Union—poses a serious security threat. A destabilized Pakistan dominated by extremist forces would threaten South Asian stability and India’s security, while an independent, secular Balochistan could serve as a stabilizing regional partner.
The disintegration of Pakistan and the establishment of a secular Baloch republic would neutralize CPEC routes through PoK, weaken the China-Turkey and other anti-India alliances, and allow Afghanistan to reclaim territories across the Durand Line, potentially reshaping the Greater Afghanistan project.
It is concerning that Pakistan is widely regarded as an Islamic and democratic nation despite its historical and ongoing actions causing immense harm to Muslim populations—from the Bengali genocide to interventions in Afghanistan, and systematic repression of Pashtun and Baloch communities—undermining Islam’s moral standing.
In the name of humanity, justice, and the protection of the Arab-raced Baloch nation, the international community must take meaningful diplomatic, political, and humanitarian action. The establishment of an independent, democratic Baloch nation at the gateway of the Middle East would contribute to regional stability and serve the long-term interests of the Arab and wider Muslim world. The Baloch nation would remain deeply grateful for solidarity, support, and principled action.
Given Pakistan’s aggression in Afghanistan, internal conflicts with the TTP and BLA, Chinese expansionism, and anti-Baloch policies, India—acting as a responsible neighbor while consulting Arab and Muslim countries—must take decisive steps. The disintegration of Pakistan and the independence of Balochistan would limit China’s regional influence. India should prepare contingency plans to reclaim PoK, engage secular Baloch nationalists, and coordinate with Afghanistan for long-term stability. As in 1971, India has both a moral and strategic obligation to support self-determination.
In this scenario, India must expose Pakistan’s objectives and elevate its own strategic profile amid the ongoing U.S.–Israel–Iran war, which is devastating the Middle East and affecting the global economy.
About the Author:
Fatima Baloch is a senior geopolitical and regional affairs analyst who writes extensively on Afghanistan, Balochistan, and India, focusing on regional security dynamics, insurgency movements, and South Asian strategic affairs.
Umesh Agarwal is a geopolitical expert specializing in Balochistan, Afghanistan, India–Pakistan conflicts, the Middle East, international relations, and regional security issues. He is also a senior columnist associated with the digital news platform IndiaChronicle.
